黒 Black's Edge · Wallet · Open Book + Settled Ledger

黒Black's Edge · The Wallet

Two panels, one source of truth. Settled Ledger is the closed record — wins, losses, pushes, units booked. Open Book is the live mark-to-market — every open pick re-priced against its current market line. Mirror-able. Screenshot-able. Every market URL clickable for independent verification.

Panel A · Settled Ledger · the closed record

Wins

Losses

Pushes

+0u

YTD Units

Panel B · Open Book · mark-to-market

90%

Ahead-pct

Ahead

Against

+234¢

Unrealized

Mirror this wallet

Copy and paste anywhere — X, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Polymarket profile, Manifold bio, Kalshi forum. Every market URL is live and verifiable. Numbers refresh on every page load.

Black's Edge · Open Book · 2026-07-13
Settled: 1W-1L-1P (+0u YTD)
Open: 37 positions · 9 ahead · 1 against · 90% ahead-pct
Unrealized: +234¢ across the book

· NO @ 50¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· NO @ 50¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· YES @ 50¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· NO @ 91¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· NO @ 50¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· NO @ 50¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Live: pops4-blacks-edge.billing-010.workers.dev/scoreboard

Raw JSON ↗ Full edge view →

Open Book 37 positions

Issue	Market	Question	Side	Entry	Live	Δ price	In our favor	Vs market	Closes
2026-07-13	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-12	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-11	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	YES	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-10	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-09	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-08	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-06	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.25	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-05	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	YES	0.43	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-04	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-02	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-01	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.09	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-30	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.09	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-21	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-19	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-15	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-07-02	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.45	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-29	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.62	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-27	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.09	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-24	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.09	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-23	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-22	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-21	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-20	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	YES	0.09	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-19	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.50	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-18	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.34	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-16	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-15	polymarket	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.94	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-06-28	manifold ↗	"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2"	NO	0.40	0.31	-8.5¢	+8.5¢	AHEAD	8d
2026-07-05	manifold ↗	"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2"	NO	0.31	0.31	+0.5¢	-0.5¢	AGAINST	16d
2026-07-13	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	0.02	-48.4¢	+48.4¢	AHEAD	17d
2026-07-11	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"	NO	0.09	0.02	-7.3¢	+7.3¢	AHEAD	17d
2026-07-10	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"	NO	0.09	0.02	-7.5¢	+7.5¢	AHEAD	17d
2026-07-06	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"	NO	0.09	0.02	-7.3¢	+7.3¢	AHEAD	18d
2026-07-03	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"	NO	0.91	0.02	-89.4¢	+89.4¢	AHEAD	18d
2026-07-12	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?"	NO	0.45	0.04	-40.5¢	+40.5¢	AHEAD	24d
2026-07-11	manifold ↗	"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2"	YES	0.88	0.90	+1.8¢	+1.8¢	AHEAD	32d
2026-06-28	polymarket ↗	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?"	NO	0.50	0.27	-23.5¢	+23.5¢	AHEAD	170d

Issue

Market

Question

Side

Entry

Live

Δ price

In our favor

Vs market

Closes

2026-07-13

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-12

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-11

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

YES

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-10

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.91

—

FLAT

2026-07-09

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-08

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-06

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.25

—

FLAT

2026-07-05

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

YES

0.43

—

FLAT

2026-07-04

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-02

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-07-01

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.09

—

FLAT

2026-06-30

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.09

—

FLAT

2026-06-21

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-06-19

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-06-15

polymarket

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"

0.91

—

FLAT

2026-07-02

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.45

—

FLAT

2026-06-29

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.62

—

FLAT

2026-06-27

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.09

—

FLAT

2026-06-24

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.09

—

FLAT

2026-06-23

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.91

—

FLAT

2026-06-22

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.91

—

FLAT

2026-06-21

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-06-20

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

YES

0.09

—

FLAT

2026-06-19

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.50

—

FLAT

2026-06-18

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.34

—

FLAT

2026-06-16

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.91

—

FLAT

2026-06-15

polymarket

"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"

0.94

—

FLAT

2026-06-28

manifold ↗

"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2"

0.40

0.31

-8.5¢

+8.5¢

AHEAD

2026-07-05

manifold ↗

"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2"

0.31

+0.5¢

-0.5¢

AGAINST

16d

2026-07-13

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"

0.50

0.02

-48.4¢

+48.4¢

AHEAD

17d

2026-07-11

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"

0.09

0.02

-7.3¢

+7.3¢

AHEAD

17d

2026-07-10

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"

0.09

0.02

-7.5¢

+7.5¢

AHEAD

17d

2026-07-06

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"

0.09

0.02

-7.3¢

+7.3¢

AHEAD

18d

2026-07-03

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"

0.91

0.02

-89.4¢

+89.4¢

AHEAD

18d

2026-07-12

polymarket ↗

"Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?"

0.45

0.04

-40.5¢

+40.5¢

AHEAD

24d

2026-07-11

manifold ↗

"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2"

YES

0.88

0.90

+1.8¢

AHEAD

32d

2026-06-28

polymarket ↗

"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?"

0.50

0.27

-23.5¢

+23.5¢

AHEAD

170d

Settled Ledger 2 closed

Issue	Market	Question	Side	Entry	Final	Outcome	Units
2026-06-17	`manifold`	"Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q"	NO	0.50	0.01	push	0
2026-06-14	`manifold`	"Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?"	YES	0.95	1.00	win	+1

Issue

Market

Question

Side

Entry

Final

Outcome

Units

2026-06-17

manifold

"Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q"

0.50

0.01

push

2026-06-14

manifold

"Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?"

YES

0.95

1.00

win

Open Book "In our favor" sums to +234¢ across the book — mark-to-market only, not a settled P&L. "AHEAD" / "AGAINST" require > 0.5¢ movement vs entry. Settlement happens when the prediction market closes; the grader polls daily. Bless their hearts — the rest of the category posts vibes; we post the tape.

黒Black's Edge · The Wallet

Mirror this wallet