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Black's Edge · Open Book · 2026-10-20 Settled: 94W-9L-0P (+85u YTD) Open: 6 positions · 3 ahead · 2 against · 60% ahead-pct Unrealized: +125¢ across the book · NO @ 91¢ → 3¢ (+88¢) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 · YES @ 45¢ → — (flat) — October 2026 AI model releases · YES @ 48¢ → 14¢ (-34¢) — Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026? · NO @ 91¢ → 26¢ (+66¢) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 202 · NO @ 7¢ → 8¢ (-1¢) — By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal · NO @ 53¢ → 47¢ (+6¢) — In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movi Live: pops4-blacks-edge.billing-010.workers.dev/scoreboard
| Issue | Market | Question | Side | Entry | Live | Δ price | In our favor | Vs market | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | polymarket ↗ | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.03 | -88.5¢ | +88.5¢ | AHEAD | 12d |
| 2026-10-07 | manifold ↗ | "October 2026 AI model releases" | YES | 0.45 | — | — | — | FLAT | 12d |
| 2026-10-05 | manifold ↗ | "Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?" | YES | 0.48 | 0.14 | -33.5¢ | -33.5¢ | AGAINST | 72d |
| 2026-09-30 | polymarket ↗ | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.26 | -65.5¢ | +65.5¢ | AHEAD | 73d |
| 2026-10-14 | manifold ↗ | "By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern w" | NO | 0.07 | 0.08 | +1.0¢ | -1.0¢ | AGAINST | 93d |
| 2026-10-04 | manifold ↗ | "In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a pro" | NO | 0.53 | 0.47 | -6.0¢ | +6.0¢ | AHEAD | 438d |
| Issue | Market | Question | Side | Entry | Final | Outcome | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.58 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-19 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | YES | 0.42 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-10-18 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | — | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-17 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.09 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-16 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | YES | 0.45 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-10-16 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.38 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-15 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-13 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.55 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-12 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?" | NO | 0.25 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-11 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?" | NO | 0.09 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-10 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.07 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-09 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.22 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-09 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | YES | 0.50 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-10-08 | manifold | "Will OpenAI retract any of its AI-Driven Mathematical Results before 2027?" | YES | 0.99 | 1.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-08 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-07 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.54 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-07 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.42 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-06 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?" | NO | 0.15 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-05 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-04 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-03 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.09 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-03 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.09 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-02 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-02 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-10-01 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-30 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-29 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-29 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-28 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.55 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-27 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-27 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-25 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.09 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-24 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-23 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-22 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-21 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-21 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.35 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-20 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-09-20 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
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