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Black's Edge · Open Book · 2026-08-27 Settled: 82W-11L-1P (+71u YTD) Open: 17 positions · 15 ahead · 1 against · 94% ahead-pct Unrealized: +776¢ across the book · NO @ 27¢ → 7¢ (+20¢) — Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math · NO @ 50¢ → 3¢ (+47¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · NO @ 91¢ → 3¢ (+88¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · NO @ 41¢ → 3¢ (+38¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · NO @ 42¢ → 3¢ (+39¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · NO @ 92¢ → 3¢ (+89¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Live: pops4-blacks-edge.billing-010.workers.dev/scoreboard
| Issue | Market | Question | Side | Entry | Live | Δ price | In our favor | Vs market | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | manifold ↗ | "Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2" | NO | 0.27 | 0.07 | -19.9¢ | +19.9¢ | AHEAD | 0d |
| 2026-08-21 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.03 | -46.8¢ | +46.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-20 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.03 | -87.8¢ | +87.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-18 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.41 | 0.03 | -37.7¢ | +37.7¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-17 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.42 | 0.03 | -38.7¢ | +38.7¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-16 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.92 | 0.03 | -88.8¢ | +88.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-11 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.45 | 0.03 | -41.8¢ | +41.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-09 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.87 | 0.03 | -83.8¢ | +83.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-08 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | — | 0.03 | — | — | FLAT | 3d |
| 2026-08-07 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.03 | -87.8¢ | +87.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-06 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.03 | -46.8¢ | +46.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-04 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.10 | 0.03 | -6.8¢ | +6.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-02 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.03 | -46.8¢ | +46.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-07-31 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.13 | 0.03 | -9.8¢ | +9.8¢ | AHEAD | 3d |
| 2026-08-22 | polymarket ↗ | "Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.58 | 0.03 | -54.8¢ | +54.8¢ | AHEAD | 4d |
| 2026-08-24 | manifold ↗ | "Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated?" | NO | 0.41 | 0.46 | +5.4¢ | -5.4¢ | AGAINST | 125d |
| 2026-08-09 | polymarket ↗ | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.07 | -83.5¢ | +83.5¢ | AHEAD | 125d |
| Issue | Market | Question | Side | Entry | Final | Outcome | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-27 | polymarket | "Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | YES | 0.45 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-08-25 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.55 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.47 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-23 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.58 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.38 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-17 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.65 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | YES | 0.45 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-08-13 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.58 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-10 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | manifold | "Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on Au" | YES | 0.96 | 0.00 | loss | -1 |
| 2026-07-30 | polymarket | "Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |
| 2026-07-28 | polymarket | "Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.00 | win | +1 |