黒Black's Edge · The Wallet

Two panels, one source of truth. Settled Ledger is the closed record — wins, losses, pushes, units booked. Open Book is the live mark-to-market — every open pick re-priced against its current market line. Mirror-able. Screenshot-able. Every market URL clickable for independent verification.

Panel A · Settled Ledger · the closed record

Wins

Losses

Pushes

+0u

YTD Units

Panel B · Open Book · mark-to-market

50%

Ahead-pct

Ahead

Against

+84¢

Unrealized

Mirror this wallet

Copy and paste anywhere — X, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Polymarket profile, Manifold bio, Kalshi forum. Every market URL is live and verifiable. Numbers refresh on every page load.

Black's Edge · Open Book · 2026-05-29
Settled: 0W-0L-0P (+0u YTD)
Open: 7 positions · 3 ahead · 3 against · 50% ahead-pct
Unrealized: +84¢ across the book

· NO @ 91¢ → — (flat) — Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
· NO @ 40¢ → 14¢ (+27¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
· NO @ 34¢ → 14¢ (+21¢) — Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
· NO @ 89¢ → 89¢ (-0¢) — Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
· NO @ 22¢ → 25¢ (-3¢) — Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install
· YES @ 38¢ → 38¢ (+0¢) — Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full

Live: pops4-blacks-edge.billing-010.workers.dev/scoreboard

Raw JSON ↗ Full edge view →

Open Book 7 positions

Issue	Market	Question	Side	Entry	Live	Δ price	In our favor	Vs market	Closes
2026-05-28	polymarket	"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"	NO	0.91	—	—	—	FLAT	0d
2026-05-29	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.40	0.14	-26.5¢	+26.5¢	AHEAD	31d
2026-05-26	polymarket ↗	"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"	NO	0.34	0.14	-20.5¢	+20.5¢	AHEAD	31d
2026-05-26	manifold ↗	"Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?"	NO	0.89	0.89	+0.5¢	-0.5¢	AGAINST	215d
2026-05-24	manifold ↗	"Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 36"	NO	0.22	0.25	+3.2¢	-3.2¢	AGAINST	215d
2026-05-24	manifold ↗	"Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job""	YES	0.38	0.38	+0.2¢	+0.2¢	AGAINST	947d
2026-05-25	manifold ↗	"Is ai going to be self repairing?"	NO	0.50	0.10	-40.1¢	+40.1¢	AHEAD	2187d

Settled Ledger 0 closed

Issue	Market	Question	Side	Entry	Final	Outcome	Units
No settled picks yet. First settlement: see Open Book for nearest close date.

Open Book "In our favor" sums to +84¢ across the book — mark-to-market only, not a settled P&L. "AHEAD" / "AGAINST" require > 0.5¢ movement vs entry. Settlement happens when the prediction market closes; the grader polls daily. Bless their hearts — the rest of the category posts vibes; we post the tape.

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