Ahead of the Market

Every Black's Edge pick re-priced against its current prediction-market line. If the market has moved toward our call, we're ahead. If it's moved against, the call's underwater. Auto-refreshes on every hit.
90%
Ahead-of-market %
9
Picks Ahead
1
Against
27
Flat / unmoved
37
Pending
2
Settled
Pick-by-pick · live re-pricing
DateMarketQuestionSideEntryLiveΔVs marketOutcome
2026-07-13polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-13polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"NO0.500.02-48.4¢AHEADpending
2026-07-12polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-12polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?"NO0.450.04-40.5¢AHEADpending
2026-07-11polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"NO0.090.02-7.3¢AHEADpending
2026-07-11polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"YES0.50FLATpending
2026-07-11manifold"Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?"YES0.880.90+1.8¢AHEADpending
2026-07-10polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"NO0.090.02-7.5¢AHEADpending
2026-07-10polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.91FLATpending
2026-07-09polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-08polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-06polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.25FLATpending
2026-07-06polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"NO0.090.02-7.3¢AHEADpending
2026-07-05polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"YES0.43FLATpending
2026-07-05manifold"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]"NO0.310.31+0.5¢AGAINSTpending
2026-07-04polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-03polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?"NO0.910.02-89.4¢AHEADpending
2026-07-02polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-07-02polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.45FLATpending
2026-07-01polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.09FLATpending
2026-06-30polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.09FLATpending
2026-06-29polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.62FLATpending
2026-06-28polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?"NO0.500.27-23.5¢AHEADpending
2026-06-28manifold"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]"NO0.400.31-8.5¢AHEADpending
2026-06-27polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.09FLATpending
2026-06-24polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.09FLATpending
2026-06-23polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.91FLATpending
2026-06-22polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.91FLATpending
2026-06-21polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-06-21polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-06-20polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"YES0.09FLATpending
2026-06-19polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-06-19polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.50FLATpending
2026-06-18polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.34FLATpending
2026-06-17manifold"Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026"NO0.50FLATpush
2026-06-16polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.91FLATpending
2026-06-15polymarket"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?"NO0.91FLATpending
2026-06-15polymarket"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"NO0.94FLATpending
2026-06-14manifold"Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?"YES0.950.91-3.8¢AGAINSTwin
"Ahead" means the prediction market has re-priced toward our call since we made it (movement > 0.5¢). "Against" means it moved the other way. "Flat" means we couldn't re-fetch the price (market closed, slug changed, or API timeout). A 5-pick sample is noise; the read gets meaningful at 30+.
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