黒Ahead of the Market
Every Black's Edge pick re-priced against its current prediction-market line. If the market has moved toward our call, we're ahead. If it's moved against, the call's underwater. Auto-refreshes on every hit.
Pick-by-pick · live re-pricing
| Date | Market | Question | Side | Entry | Live | Δ | Vs market | Outcome |
|---|
| 2026-05-29 | polymarket | "Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?" | NO | 0.40 | 0.14 | -26.5¢ | AHEAD | pending |
| 2026-05-28 | polymarket | "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?" | NO | 0.91 | — | — | FLAT | pending |
| 2026-05-26 | polymarket | "Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?" | NO | 0.34 | 0.14 | -20.5¢ | AHEAD | pending |
| 2026-05-26 | manifold | "Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?" | NO | 0.89 | 0.89 | +0.5¢ | AGAINST | pending |
| 2026-05-25 | manifold | "Is ai going to be self repairing?" | NO | 0.50 | 0.10 | -40.1¢ | AHEAD | pending |
| 2026-05-24 | manifold | "Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 20" | YES | 0.38 | 0.38 | +0.2¢ | AGAINST | pending |
| 2026-05-24 | manifold | "Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras" | NO | 0.22 | 0.25 | +3.2¢ | AGAINST | pending |
"Ahead" means the prediction market has re-priced toward our call since we made it (movement > 0.5¢). "Against" means it moved the other way. "Flat" means we couldn't re-fetch the price (market closed, slug changed, or API timeout). A 5-pick sample is noise; the read gets meaningful at 30+.