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substance.","side":"NO","confidence":6,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-29T14:07:24.382Z","issue_date":"2026-09-29","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-ipo-august-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-ipo-by-august-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?","current_price":0.91,"call":"The August 2026 window is structurally tight given the governance conversion timeline and the October 2024 convertible note lockup; this is narrative trading, not sequence trading.","side":"NO","confidence":5,"closes_on":"2027-07-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-ipo-market-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-29T14:07:24.815Z","issue_date":"2026-09-29","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.55,"call":"The hardware speculation is running three turns ahead of the legal and capital structure — take NO at 45¢ implied and sleep well.","side":"NO","confidence":9,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-legal-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-28T14:07:24.660Z","issue_date":"2026-09-28","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.55,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.91,"call":"The market's priced a consumer launch with enterprise security operations as the only material signal — taking NO at 9¢ on a six-month window with zero corroborating product evidence.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-27T14:07:22.151Z","issue_date":"2026-09-27","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-ipo-august","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-ipo-by-august-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?","current_price":0.91,"call":"The regulatory surface area is expanding, the secondary tape's trading twenty points below primary, and the market's pricing certainty eleven months out — taking NO at 9¢ because someone has to.","side":"NO","confidence":6,"closes_on":"2027-07-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-ipo-august-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-27T14:07:23.321Z","issue_date":"2026-09-27","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.09,"call":"OpenAI just shipped a dual-model software architecture with no hardware hooks and an IPO window opening — they're not taking the distraction.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-25T14:07:29.735Z","issue_date":"2026-09-25","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.09,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The market is pricing a coin-flip on a six-month hardware launch with zero manufacturing signals and a software-first Astra deployment — take NO.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-24T14:07:13.397Z","issue_date":"2026-09-24","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The market is pricing retail hope at $184K daily volume, but there's no FCC filing, no supply-chain chatter, and no executive roadmap—take NO.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-2026-fade","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-23T14:07:36.168Z","issue_date":"2026-09-23","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.91,"call":"We're taking NO at 9¢ — six months out, zero product signal, and a vendor with no hardware track record is not a nine-to-one probability.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-2026-mispricing","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-22T14:07:12.362Z","issue_date":"2026-09-22","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The market is pricing optimism without operational evidence — no SKU, no FCC filing, no retail channel, and a six-month window that does not accommodate consumer electronics lead times.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-2026-market","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-21T14:07:11.006Z","issue_date":"2026-09-21","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-ipo-august-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-ipo-by-august-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?","current_price":0.35,"call":"No S-1, no underwriter syndicate, and a dual-entity structure that does not file and price in eleven months — the market is mispricing the timeline by at least two quarters.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-ipo-august-2026-divergence","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-21T14:07:12.846Z","issue_date":"2026-09-21","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.35,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"Six months to ship consumer hardware with zero vendor partnerships, no FCC filings, and a design partner who measures timelines in years — the YES side is 20 cents too rich.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-04-01","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-2026-mispriced","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-20T14:07:11.313Z","issue_date":"2026-09-20","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-ipo-august-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-ipo-by-august-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"Secondary clearing $110B below primary is the market telling you insiders are pricing delay — the prediction market just hasn't opened the email yet.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-ipo-august-2026-overpriced","outcome":"win","units":1,"snapshots":null,"final_price":0,"resolved_at":"2026-09-20T14:07:11.609Z","issue_date":"2026-09-20","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null}]}