{"generated_at":"2026-07-13T22:57:51.730Z","total_picks":39,"pending":37,"settled":2,"ahead_of_market":8,"against_market":2,"flat":27,"ahead_pct":80,"picks":[{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The market is trading volume without conviction, and the calendar says the window is already closing — fade the March launch.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2025-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-stall","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-07-13","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-gpt-6-july-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-july-31-2026-20260610221318220-197","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by 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out.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2025-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-fade","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-07-01","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.09,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.09,"call":"The market has read the Jony Ive stories and priced them at under 10% probability—fade the YES, take the 91¢ 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it.","side":"NO","confidence":9,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"gpt-6-june-market-divergence","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-29","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.62,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-december-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The lab is naming models, not products, and eighteen months of industrial-design lead time has not started.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-market-divergence","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-28","live_price":0.25,"live_volume":157.370747,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-december-31-2026","entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":-0.25,"ahead_of_market":true},{"id":"fade-imo-perfect-score-open-source","market":"manifold","market_id":"opensource-ai-model-gets-perfect-im","question":"Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? 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hearts.","side":"NO","confidence":9,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"gpt-6-market-repricing","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-27","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.09,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-gpt-6-june-close","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?","current_price":0.09,"call":"The market closes in six days, moved $214K in volume, and is pricing 91¢ NO with zero information flow — that's a theta decay fade, not a directional 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playbook.","side":"NO","confidence":8,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"gpt-6-market-mispricing","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-23","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-gpt-6-june-30","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?","current_price":0.91,"call":"Fade the 91¢ YES — eight days to expiration, zero release signal, and OpenAI doesn't ship numbered models without seventy-two hours of choreography, bless their hearts.","side":"NO","confidence":9,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"gpt-6-june-mispricing","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-22","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.91,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The tape is pricing Jony Ive rumors as if they were filed disclosures, and the settlement window closes before any rational hardware cycle could clear FCC and supply-chain logistics.","side":"NO","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2025-12-31","source_breakdown_id":"openai-hardware-march-2026-mispricing","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-21","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-gpt-6-june-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"Nine days is not a beta cycle, and OpenAI does not ship major-version models without preview windows — this is a coin flip priced on hope, not roadmap.","side":"NO","confidence":9,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"gpt-6-june-2026-market-mispricing","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-21","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.5,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"gpt-6-june-yes","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?","current_price":0.09,"call":"Shazeer's hire ten days before close and the June Manifold activity suggest the market is fading a live window—taking YES at 9¢ against consensus.","side":"YES","confidence":7,"closes_on":"2026-06-30","source_breakdown_id":"shazeer-openai-velocity","outcome":"pending","units":0,"snapshots":null,"issue_date":"2026-06-20","live_price":null,"live_volume":null,"market_url":null,"entry_price":0.09,"price_delta":null,"ahead_of_market":null},{"id":"fade-openai-hardware-march-2026","market":"polymarket","market_id":"will-openai-launch-a-new-consumer-hardware-product-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?","current_price":0.5,"call":"The market is pricing narrative without manufacturing evidence—no FCC filings, no supply chain signals, no disclosed partners—and $184,752 in daily volume does not make a roadmap 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